Background: Schizophrenia spectrum disorders (SSD) have heterogeneous outcomes. If we could predict individual outcome and identify predictors of outcome, we could personalize and optimize treatment and care. Recent research showed that recovery rates tend to stabilize early in the course of disease. Short- to medium- term treatment goals are most relevant for clinical practice.
Methods: We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify predictors of outcome ≤1 year in prospective studies of patients with SSD. For our meta-analysis risk of bias was assessed with the QUIPS tool.
Results: 178 studies were included for analysis. Our systematic review and meta-analysis showed that the chance of symptomatic remission was lower in males, and in patients with longer duration of untreated psychosis, more symptoms, worse global functioning, more previous hospital admissions and worse treatment adherence. The chance of readmission was higher for patients with more previous admissions. The chance of functional improvement was lower in patients with worse functioning at baseline. For other proposed predictors of outcome, like age at onset and depressive symptoms, limited to no evidence was found.
Discussion: This study illuminates predictors of outcome of SSD. Level of functioning at baseline was the best predictor of all investigated outcomes. Furthermore, we found no evidence for many predictors proposed in original research. Possible reasons for this include the lack of prospective research, between-study heterogeneity and incomplete reporting. We therefore recommend open access to datasets and analysis scripts, enabling other researchers to reanalyze and pool the data.
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