Background: Non-curative resection (non-CR) after endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) requires additional surgery due to the possibility of lymph node metastasis (LNM). Therefore, it is important to accurately predict the risk of non-CR to avoid unnecessary preoperative procedures. Thus, we aimed to develop and verify a nomogram to predict the risk of non-CR prior to ESD.
Methods: Patients who underwent ESD for early gastric cancer (EGC) were divided into CR and non-CR groups based on the present ESD criteria. The pre-procedural factors, such as endoscopic features, radiologic findings, and pathology of the lesion, were compared between the groups to identify the risk factors associated with non-CR. A nomogram was developed using multivariate analysis, and its predictive value was assessed using an external validation group.
Results: Among 824 patients, 682 were curative (82.7%) and 142 were non-curative (17.3%). By comparing two groups, endoscopic features including redness, whitish mucosal change, fold convergence, and large lesion size; histologic features such as moderately or poorly differentiated or signet ring cell carcinoma; and abnormal CT findings including non-specific lymph node enlargement and fold thickening were identified as significant predictors of non-CR. The nomogram was developed based on these predictors and showed good predictive performance in the external validation, with an area under the curve of 0.87.
Conclusions: We developed a nomogram to predict the risk of non-CR prior to ESD. These predictive factors in addition to the existing ESD criteria can help provide the best treatment option for patients with EGC.
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| http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00464-023-09949-0 | DOI Listing |
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