AI Article Synopsis

  • A study examined how the age of onset (AAO) for bipolar disorder relates to neurodevelopmental pathways, looking for the best age cut-off to define "early" AAO.
  • Using data from 4,421 patients, researchers found that an age cut-off of 17 years or younger is most effective for identifying distinctive neurodevelopmental patterns in patients.
  • The research suggests that current definitions based on Gaussian mixture models (GMM) are not as effective in capturing these neurodevelopmental differences, indicating a need for better patient classification in bipolar disorder studies.

Article Abstract

Background: Converging evidence suggests that a subgroup of bipolar disorder (BD) with an early age at onset (AAO) may develop from aberrant neurodevelopment. However, the definition of early AAO remains unprecise. We thus tested which age cut-off for early AAO best corresponds to distinguishable neurodevelopmental pathways.

Methods: We analyzed data from the FondaMental Advanced Center of Expertise-Bipolar Disorder cohort, a naturalistic sample of 4421 patients. First, a supervised learning framework was applied in binary classification experiments using neurodevelopmental history to predict early AAO, defined either with Gaussian mixture models (GMM) clustering or with each of the different cut-offs in the range 14 to 25 years. Second, an unsupervised learning approach was used to find clusters based on neurodevelopmental factors and to examine the overlap between such data-driven groups and definitions of early AAO used for supervised learning.

Results: A young cut-off, i.e. 14 up to 16 years, induced higher separability [mean nested cross-validation test AUROC = 0.7327 (± 0.0169) for ⩽16 years]. Predictive performance deteriorated increasing the cut-off or setting early AAO with GMM. Similarly, defining early AAO below 17 years was associated with a higher degree of overlap with data-driven clusters (Normalized Mutual Information = 0.41 for ⩽17 years) relatively to other definitions.

Conclusions: Early AAO best captures distinctive neurodevelopmental patterns when defined as ⩽17 years. GMM-based definition of early AAO falls short of mapping to highly distinguishable neurodevelopmental pathways. These results should be used to improve patients' stratification in future studies of BD pathophysiology and biomarkers.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S003329172300020XDOI Listing

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