Prognostic value of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol in IgA nephropathy and establishment of nomogram model.

Background: Dyslipidemia is closely related to kidney disease. We aimed to investigate the relationship between low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and prognosis of IgA nephropathy (IgAN) and build a nomogram prognostic model.

Methods: 519 IgAN patients with 61 months median follow-up were enrolled and divided into two groups based on the cut-off value of baseline LDL-C (2.60 mmol/L): the high group (n=253) and the low group (n=266). Renal survival was assessed by Kaplan⁃Meier (KM) survival curve. Risk factors were identified by COX regression analysis. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves (AUC), concordance index (C-index), and calibration curves were applied to evaluate the nomogram model.

Results: KM survival curve analysis showed that the high LDL-C group had worse renal survival than the low LDL-C group (χ2 = 8.555, p=0.003). After adjusting for confounding factors, Cox regression analysis showed the baseline LDL-C level was an independent risk factor of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in IgAN (HR=3.135, 95% CI 1.240~7.926, p =0.016). LDL-C, segmental sclerosis, tubular atrophy/interstitial fibrosis, the prevalence of cardiovascular disease, 24-hour proteinuria were identified and entered into the nomogram models, with AUC of 0.864, 0.827, and 0.792 respectively to predict the 5-, 8-, and 10-year risk of ESRD in IgAN. The C-index of this prediction model was respectively 0.862, 0.838, and 0.800 and was well-calibrated.

Conclusion: Elevated LDL-C level is a predictive factor for the prognosis of IgAN. We developed a nomogram model that can predict the risk of ESRD in IgAN by using LDL-C ≥ 2.60 mmol/L.