Spatial analysis of Chikungunya fever incidence and the associated socioeconomic, demographic, and vector infestation factors in municipalities of Pernambuco, Brazil, 2015-2021.

Objective: To identify the spatial patterns of chikungunya fever (CHIKF) and the associated socioeconomic, demographic, and vector infestation factors in the 1st Health Region of Pernambuco (1st HRP).

Methods: This ecological study used a spatial analysis of Mean Incidence Rates (MIR) of probable cases of CHIKF reported among residents of the 19 municipalities of the 1st HRP, in 2015-2021. The univariate and bivariate global Moran indexes (I) were estimated. From the significant associations (p<0.05), clusters were identified using the local Moran index and maps.

Results: A predominance of the largest CHIKF rates was identified in the east. However, there was a heterogeneous distribution of rates across municipalities, which may have contributed to the absence of spatial autocorrelation of CHIKF (I=0.03; p=0.294) in univariate I. The bivariate I revealed a positive spatial correlation between CHIKF and the Municipal Human Development Index (MHDI) (I=0.245; p=0.038), but with a cluster of cities with low incidences and low MHDI in the west. There was no spatial correlation between CHIKF and the other variables analyzed: population density, Gini index, social vulnerability index, and building infestation index for Aedes aegypti.

Conclusions: The results suggest that only the MHDI influenced the occurrence of CHIKF in the 1st HRP, so that municipalities in the west demonstrated spatial dependence between lower values of MHDI and MIR. However, this spatial correlation may have occurred due to possible underreporting in the area. These findings can assist in the (re)orientation of resources for surveillance and health care services.