An assessment of the predictive value of low risk criteria for children with intermittent asthma.

Background: Current asthma guidelines recommend short acting beta agonist medication (SABA) be used in combination with an inhaled corticosteroid to reduce risk for severe asthma exacerbations. This may not be appropriate for patients at low risk for severe exacerbations.

Methods: This study is a cohort study using computerized claims data from Texas Children's Health Plan. Inclusion criteria were members 1 to <18 years with a diagnosis of asthma in a baseline year between 2016 and 2018 and who had ≤2 SABA canisters or equivalent dispensed, no oral corticosteroid or inhaled corticosteroid dispensing, no asthma hospitalizations, and no asthma emergency department visits in the baseline year. Follow up year outcomes of asthma hospitalizations and emergency department visits were determined for the year following the baseline year.

Findings: Forty-five thousand two hundred and thiry health plan members 1 to <18 years met inclusion criteria. The rate of follow up year asthma hospitalization was 1.1 per thousand for those with no baseline SABA dispensing and 1.5 per thousand for those with >0 and ≤2 SABA canister dispensings (p = 0.3). Follow up year Emergency Department visits rates were 14 per thousand and 17 per thousand, respectively (p = 0.08). In analyses adjusted for age group, the follow up year asthma hospitalization rate was not different comparing the 0 SABA to the >0 and ≤2 SABA canister dispensings group (odds ratio: 0.99, 95% confidence interval: 0.54-1.81).

Interpretation: Asthma patients at low risk for severe exacerbations can be identified. This information can be useful to guide treatment decisions.