Early recognition of risk of critical adverse events based on deep neural decision gradient boosting.

Introduction: Perioperative critical events will affect the quality of medical services and threaten the safety of patients. Using scientific methods to evaluate the perioperative risk of critical illness is of great significance for improving the quality of medical services and ensuring the safety of patients.

Method: At present, the traditional scoring system is mainly used to predict the score of critical illness, which is mainly dependent on the judgment of doctors. The result is affected by doctors' knowledge and experience, and the accuracy is difficult to guarantee and has a serious lag. Besides, the statistical prediction method based on pure data type do not make use of the patient's diagnostic text information and cannot identify comprehensive risk factor. Therefore, this paper combines the text features extracted by deep neural network with the pure numerical type features extracted by XGBOOST to propose a deep neural decision gradient boosting model. Supervised learning was used to train the risk prediction model to analyze the occurrence of critical illness during the perioperative period for early warning.

Results: We evaluated the proposed methods based on the real data of critical illness patients in one hospital from 2014 to 2018. The results showed that the critical disease risk prediction model based on multiple modes had faster convergence rate and better performance than the risk prediction model based on text data and pure data type.

Discussion: Based on the machine learning method and multi-modal data of patients, this paper built a prediction model for critical adverse events in patients, so that the risk of critical events can be predicted for any patient directly based on the preoperative and intraoperative characteristic data. At present, this work only classifies and predicts the occurrence of critical illness during or after operation based on the preoperative examination data of patients, but does not discuss the specific time when the patient was critical illness, which is also the direction of our future work.