Energy Contour Forecasting Optimization with Smart Metering in Distribution Power Networks.

Smart metering systems development and implementation in power distribution networks can be seen as an important factor that led to a major technological upgrade and one of the first steps in the transition to smart grids. Besides their main function of power consumption metering, as is demonstrated in this work, the extended implementation of smart metering can be used to support many other important functions in the electricity distribution grid. The present paper proposes a new solution that uses a frequency feature-based method of data time-series provided by the smart metering system to estimate the energy contour at distribution level with the aim of improving the quality of the electricity supply service, of reducing the operational costs and improving the quality of electricity measurement and billing services. The main benefit of this approach is determining future energy demand for optimal energy flow in the utility grid, with the main aims of the best long term energy production and acquisition planning, which lead to lowering energy acquisition costs, optimal capacity planning and real-time adaptation to the unpredicted internal or external electricity distribution branch grid demand changes. Additionally, a contribution to better energy production planning, which is a must for future power networks that benefit from an important renewable energy contribution, is intended. The proposed methodology is validated through a case study based on data supplied by a real power grid from a medium sized populated European region that has both economic usage of electricity-industrial or commercial-and household consumption. The analysis performed in the proposed case study reveals the possibility of accurate energy contour forecasting with an acceptable maximum error. Commonly, an error of 1% was obtained and in the case of the exceptional events considered, a maximum 15% error resulted.