[Analysis of the Prognostic Value and Risk Factors of Early Relapse for Newly Diagnosed Multiple Myeloma Patients in the Era of Novel Agents].

Objective: To investigate the influece of early relapse in the era of novel drugs on the prognosis of the patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma（NDMM） and risk factors, and to provide the basis for the early identification of the high-risk patients and guiding the treatment.

Methods: The clinical data of the patients with NDMM admitted to our hospital from November 2011 to May 2022 were retrospectively analyzed. According to whether the progression free survival（PFS） was more than 12 months, they were divided into early relapse group（≤12 months） and late relapse group（＞12 months）. The high-risk factors of the patients in two groups were analyzed, including age, anemia, renal insufficiency, hypercalcemia, increasing of lactate dehydrogenase（LDH） level, Extramedullary disease (EMD), International Staging System（ISS） stage, Revised International Staging System （R-ISS） stage, cytogenetic abnormalities(CA) detected by fluorescence in situ hybridization（FISH）, and treatment efficacy. The meaningful clinical indicators were screened, and multivariate analysis was used to explore the high-risk factors of early relapse.

Results: 170 patients with NDMM were collected, including 25 cases in early relapse group and 145 cases in late relapse group. The median OS time of the patients in early death group was 20 months, and 140 months in late relapse group by the end of follow-up, there was significant difference in OS of the patients between two groups（<0.001）. Fifteen patients（56.0％）in early relapse group obtained ≥VGPR, and 113（77.9%） patients in late relapse group, the difference was statistically significant（=0.011）. Survival outcomes remained poor among early relapse patients irrespective of depth of response to initial therapy. Multivariate analysis showed that the EMD and high-risk CA predicted early relapse.

Conclusion: The prognosis of patients with early relapse in NDMM is poor. EMD and high-risk CA is an independent prognostic factor of early relapse.