A system in crisis: exploring how recent emergency department closures influence potential access to emergency care in Ontario.

Objectives: Access to emergency medical care in Ontario has been under stress, mainly due to a lack of human resources (staffing of nurses and doctors). Over the past year, several emergency departments in Ontario have closed. Some of these closures are nightly, while others have closed for weeks at a time, leaving Ontario residents without access to emergency medical care which can lead to poor or more severe outcomes. The purpose of this paper was to examine how closures of ED's in Ontario have influenced potential access to emergency medical care.

Methods: We performed population-level geographic information systems (GIS)-based analysis of potential access to ED hospitals in Ontario. The number of people with access to an ED was calculated when all ED's in Ontario were open, then recalculated with the 14 ED closures. Access was defined by ground travel with 30 min, 45 min, and 60 min travel times used for analysis. Differences in the number of people at the census block level who potentially lost access were compiled and examined by census subdivision.

Results: If all 14 ED's had closed at the same time, there would be 35,808 people at 30 min, 15,018 at 45 min, and 12,131 at 60 min travel times in Ontario who lost access to ED care. Certain areas of the province saw more significant decreases in ED access. At 45 min travel times, nearly 2000 people in Central Frontenac lost access (44% of population), while 7298 people in Cochrane (North Part) lost access (20% of population).

Conclusions: ED closures have led to decreases in potential access to emergency care for predominantly rural populations. Health human resource recovery strategies must focus on areas where lack of overlap exists.