AI Article Synopsis

  • Depression often recurs even after effective treatments, leading researchers to develop models to help adults with recurrent depression decide between sticking with antidepressants (ADM) or switching to Mindfulness-Based Cognitive Therapy (MBCT).
  • Using data from the PREVENT trial with 424 participants, the study employed elastic net regression to create models predicting relapse risk at 24 months by analyzing various factors, finding that the ADM model was more accurate than just looking at initial depression severity.
  • The results showed that individuals deemed at high risk with ADM who switched to MBCT had significantly lower relapse rates than those who continued with ADM, suggesting predictive modeling could enhance decision-making for preventing relapse in recurrent depression.

Article Abstract

Depression is highly recurrent, even following successful pharmacological and/or psychological intervention. We aimed to develop clinical prediction models to inform adults with recurrent depression choosing between antidepressant medication (ADM) maintenance or switching to Mindfulness-Based Cognitive Therapy (MBCT). Using data from the PREVENT trial (=424), we constructed prognostic models using elastic net regression that combined demographic, clinical and psychological factors to predict relapse at 24 months under ADM or MBCT. Only the ADM model (discrimination performance: AUC=.68) predicted relapse better than baseline depression severity (AUC=.54; one-tailed DeLong's test: =2.8, =.003). Individuals with the poorest ADM prognoses who switched to MBCT had better outcomes compared to those who maintained ADM (48% vs. 70% relapse, respectively; superior survival times [=-2.7, =.008]). For individuals with moderate-to-good ADM prognosis, both treatments resulted in similar likelihood of relapse. If replicated, the results suggest that predictive modeling can inform clinical decision-making around relapse prevention in recurrent depression.

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http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7614103PMC
http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/21677026221076832DOI Listing

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