Quantitative infrapatellar fat pad signal intensity alteration as an imaging biomarker of knee osteoarthritis progression.

Objective: To determine the association of quantitative infrapatellar fat pad (IPFP) signal intensity alteration with knee osteoarthritis (OA) progression.

Method: This study was performed based on the Foundation for the National Institutes of Health OA Biomarkers Consortium study, a nested case-control study consisting of 600 participants. The IPFP signal intensity alterations were quantitatively measured at baseline, 12 months and 24 months. The associations of baseline and time-integrated values over 12 and 24 months of IPFP signal intensity measures with knee OA progression over 48 months were evaluated with adjustment for baseline confounders.

Results: The baseline level of clustering effect of high signal intensity (Clustering factor (H)) was predictive of clinically relevant progression (both radiographic and pain progression) (OR 1.22). The time-integrated values of all IPFP signal intensity measures, except for mean value of IPFP signal intensity (Mean (IPFP)) over 24 months (ORs ranging from 1.23 to 1.39) as well was all except for Mean (IPFP) and mean value of IPFP high signal intensity (Mean (H)) over 12 months (ORs ranging from 1.20 to 1.31), were positively associated with clinically relevant progression. When the associations of quantitative IPFP signal intensity measures with radiographic and pain progression were examined separately, more IPFP signal intensity measures with stronger effect sizes were associated with radiographic progression compared with pain progression.

Conclusion: The associations of short-term alteration in quantitative IPFP signal intensity measures with long-term knee OA progression suggest that these measures might serve as efficacy of intervention biomarkers of knee OA.