Predicting Nomogram for Severe Oral Mucositis in Patients with Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma during Intensity-Modulated Radiation Therapy: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

Background: Oral mucositis is an acute adverse reaction with high incidence during radiotherapy. Severe oral mucositis can seriously affect patients' quality of life and compliance with radiotherapy. The aim of this study was to identify the risk factors for severe oral mucositis and to develop a nomogram for predicting severe oral mucositis in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma.

Methods: One hundred and ninety patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma were retrospectively screened in this study. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify the best predictors of severe oral mucositis. A nomogram was constructed based on the factors. Finally, the discriminative ability of the nomogram was evaluated.

Results: Four independent factors predicting severe oral mucositis were identified: age, N stage, the cycle of induction chemotherapy, and dose-volumetric parameter V40 (%) of oral cavity. The area under the receiver of operating characteristic curve of the nomogram was 0.759 (95% confidence interval: 0.691-0.827).

Conclusions: A predictive nomogram for severe oral mucositis was established and validated in this study. The nomogram provides a reliable and practical model for clinically predicting the probability of severe oral mucositis in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma before intensity-modulated radiation therapy.