Preoperative Radiomics Nomogram Based on CT Image Predicts Recurrence-Free Survival After Surgical Resection of Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

Rationale And Objectives: To construct preoperative models based on CT radiomics, radiologic and clinical features to predict recurrence-free survival (RFS) after liver resection (LR) of BCLC 0 to B stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and to classify the prognosis.

Materials And Methods: This study retrospectively analyzed 161 HCC patients who underwent radical LR. Two methods, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator and random survival forest analysis, were performed for radiomics signature (RS) construction. Univariate and multivariate stepwise Cox regression analyses were performed to establish a combined nomogram (RCN) of RS and clinical parameters and a clinical nomogram (CN). The performance of the models was assessed comprehensively using Harrell's concordance index (C-index), the calibration curve, and decision curve analysis. The discrimination accuracy of the models was compared using integrated discrimination improvement index (IDI). The risk stratification effect was assessed with Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and subgroup analysis.

Results: The RCN achieved a C-index of 0.792/0.758 in the training/validation set, which was higher than the CN, RS, and BCLC stage system. The discriminatory accuracy of the RCN was improved when compared to the CN, RS, and BCLC staging systems (IDI > 0). Decision curve analysis reflected the clinical net benefit of the RCN. The RCN allows risk stratification of patients in different clinical subgroups.

Conclusion: The integrated model combining RS and clinical factors can more effectively predict RFS after LR of BCLC 0 to B stage HCC patients and can effectively stratify the prognostic risk.