Utility of Recipient Cardiothoracic Ratio in Predicting Delayed Chest Closure after Heart Transplantation.

Background:  Predicted cardiac mass (PCM) has been well validated for size matching donor hearts to heart transplantation recipients. We hypothesized that cardiothoracic ratio (CTR) could be reflective of recipient-specific limits of oversizing, and sought to determine the utility of donor to recipient PCM ratio (PCMR) and CTR in predicting delayed chest closure after heart transplantation.

Methods:  A retrospective review of prospectively collected data on 38 consecutive heart transplantations performed at our institution from 2017 to 2020 was performed. Donor and recipient PCM were estimated using Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis predictive models. Receiver operating characteristic analysis was performed to determine the discriminatory power of the ratio of PCMR to CTR in predicting delayed sternal closure.

Results:  Of the 38 patients, 71.1% (27/38) were male and the median age at transplantation was 58 (interquartile range [IQR]: 47-62) years. Ischemic cardiomyopathy was present in 31.6% of recipients (12/38). Median recipient CTR was 0.63 [IQR: 0.59-0.66]. Median donor to recipient PCMR was 1.07 [IQR: 0.96-1.19], which indicated 7% oversizing. Thirteen out of 38 (34.2%) underwent delayed sternal closure. Primary graft dysfunction occurred in 15.8% (6/38). PCMR/CTR showed good discriminatory power in predicting delayed sternal closure [area under the curve: 80.4% (65.3-95.6%)]. PCMR/CTR cut-off of 1.7 offered the best trade-off between the sensitivity (69.6%) and specificity (91.7%).

Conclusion:  CTR could be helpful in guiding the recipient-specific extent of oversizing donor hearts. Maintaining the ratio of PCMR to CTR below 1.7 could avoid excessive oversizing of the donor heart.