On Spatiotemporal Overdispersion and Macroparasite Accumulation in Hosts Leading to Aggregation: A Quantitative Framework.

In many host-parasite systems, overdispersion in the distribution of macroparasites leads to parasite aggregation in the host population. This overdispersed distribution is often characterized by the negative binomial or by the power law. The aggregation is shown by a clustering of parasites in certain hosts, while other hosts have few or none. Here, I present a theory behind the overdispersion in complex spatiotemporal systems as well as a computational analysis for tracking the behavior of transmissible diseases with this kind of dynamics. I present a framework where heterogeneity and complexity in host-parasite systems are related to aggregation. I discuss the problem of focusing only on the average parasite burden without observing the risk posed by the associated variance; the consequences of under- or overestimation of disease transmission in a heterogenous system and environment; the advantage of including the network of social interaction in epidemiological modeling; and the implication of overdispersion in the management of health systems during outbreaks.