Understanding local ecosystem dynamics in three provinces of the lowlands of Nepal.

Incidences of failure of sustainable ecosystem management policies, especially in the developing world are partly attributable due to a lack of political will and inadequate understanding of ecosystem dynamics (ED) at the local levels. In this study, we endeavor to comprehend the dynamics of two ecosystems - forest and agriculture - by employing a resource-friendly participatory approach based on stake-taking the experiences of indigenous and forest-dependent local stakeholders in three lowland provinces of Nepal and is guided by the theory of socio-ecological concept. An in-depth survey (n = 136) was conducted using semi-structured questionnaires, key informant interviews (n = 9), and focus group discussions (n = 4) for data generation, and generalized linear models were used to test whether understanding of ED is uniform across the socio-ecological landscape. We identified that various attributes of forests and agricultural ecosystems have altered substantially earlier than 30 years (hereafter, earlier decade) relative to the present (hereafter, later decade). Apart from the natural processes including anthropogenic and climatic factors, technological innovations played a significant role in altering ecosystems in the later decade. Understanding of ED among forest-dependent stakeholders significantly varied with respect to gender, occupation, age group, gender-based water fetching responsibility, and water-fetching duration, however, no significant correlation was observed with their level of education across the landscape. The studied ecosystem attributes significantly correlate with water regime changes, signifying that water-centric ecosystem management is crucial. The attributes that observed significant dynamics in the forest ecosystem include changes in forest cover, structure and species composition, the severity of invasive species, wildfires, water regimes, and abundance and behavioral changes in mammals and avifauna. The alteration of crop cultivation and harvesting season which results in a decrease in yield, increased use of chemicals (fertilizers and pesticides), an increase in fallow land, and the proliferation of hybrid variety cultivation in the later decade are significant disparities in the dynamics of the agriculture ecosystem. To withstand the accelerated ED, stakeholders adopt various strategies, however, these strategies are either obtained from unsustainable sources entail high costs and technology, or are detrimental to the ecosystems. In relation, we present specific examples of ecosystem attributes that have significantly experienced changes in the later decade compared to the earlier decades along with plausible future pathways for policy decisions sustaining and stewardship of dynamic ecosystems across the socio-ecological landscape.