A diagnostic model for predicting type 2 nasal polyps using biomarkers in nasal secretion.

Background: Predicting type 2 chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps (CRSwNP) may help for selection of appropriate surgical procedures or pharmacotherapies in advance. However, an accurate non-invasive method for diagnosis of type 2 CRSwNP is presently unavailable.

Methods: To optimize the technique for collecting nasal secretion (NasSec), 89 CRSwNP patients were tested using nasal packs made with four types of materials. Further, Th2 and Th2CRSwNP defined by clustering analysis in another 142 CRSwNP patients using tissue biomarkers, in the meanwhile, inflammatory biomarkers were detected in NasSec of the same patients collected by the selected nasal pack. A diagnostic model was established by machine learning algorithms to predict Th2CRSwNP using NasSecs biomarkers.

Results: Considering the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for IL-5 in NasSec, nasal pack in polyvinyl alcohol (PVA) was superior to other materials for NasSec collection. When Th2 and Th2CRSwNP clusters were defined, logistic regression and decision tree model for prediction of Th2CRSwNP demonstrated high AUCs values of 0.92 and 0.90 respectively using biomarkers of NasSecs. Consequently, the pre-pruned decision tree model; based on the levels of IL-5 in NasSec (≤ 15.04 pg/mL), blood eosinophil count (≤ 0.475*10/L) and absence of comorbid asthma; was chosen to define Th2CRSwNP from Th2CRSwNP for routine clinical use.

Conclusions: Taken together, a decision tree model based on a combination of NasSec biomarkers and clinical features can accurately define type 2 CRSwNP patients and therefore may be of benefit to patients in receiving appropriate therapies in daily clinical practice.