Prognosis of Individual-Level Mobility and Daily Activities Recovery From Acute Care to Community, Part 2: A Proof-of-Concept Single Group Prospective Cohort Study.

Objective: To demonstrate a proof-of-concept for prognostic models of post-stroke recovery on activity level outcomes.

Design: Longitudinal cohort with repeated measures from acute care, inpatient rehabilitation, and post-discharge follow-up to 6 months post-stroke.

Setting: Enrollment from a single Midwest USA inpatient rehabilitation facility with community follow-up.

Participants: One-hundred fifteen persons recovering from stroke admitted to an acute rehabilitation facility (N=115).

Interventions: Not applicable.

Main Outcome Measure(s): Activity Measure for Post-Acute Care Basic Mobility and Daily Activities domains administered as 6 Clicks and patient-reported short forms.

Results: The final Basic Mobility model defined a group-averaged trajectory rising from a baseline (pseudo-intercept) T score of 35.5 (P<.001) to a plateau (asymptote) T score of 56.4 points (P<.001) at a negative exponential rate of -1.49 (P<.001). Individual baseline scores varied by age, acute care tissue plasminogen activator, and acute care length of stay. Individual plateau scores varied by walking speed, acute care tissue plasminogen activator, and lower extremity Motricity Index scores. The final Daily Activities model defined a group-averaged trajectory rising from a baseline T score of 24.5 (P<.001) to a plateau T score of 41.3 points (P<.001) at a negative exponential rate of -1.75 (P<.001). Individual baseline scores varied by acute care length of stay, and plateau scores varied by self-care, upper extremity Motricity Index, and Berg Balance Scale scores.

Conclusions: As a proof-of-concept, individual activity-level recovery can be predicted as patient-level trajectories generated from electronic medical record data, but models require attention to completeness and accuracy of data elements collected on a fully representative patient sample.