A dynamic analysis of empirical survival outcomes after pancreatectomy for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma.

Background: Survival outcomes after pancreatectomy for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma may be biased by right-censoring. We herein analyzed a large dataset with no censored events for up to 5 years and dynamically investigated the impact of known prognostic factors, accounting for unobserved tumor characteristics.

Methods: Consecutive patients undergoing pancreatectomy from 2000 to July 2015 were included. The 1- to 5-year empirical survival rates were calculated, and factors associated with long-term survival (≥5 years) were analyzed using multivariable models. Dynamic analyses of survival and recurrence were conducted through landmarking, and the contribution of unobserved heterogeneity was estimated using frailty models.

Results: The study population included 1,048 patients. The median follow-up was 30.4 months in the whole cohort and 97.2 months in survivors. The median survival was 30.4 months, with empirical 1- to 5-year rates of 85.5%, 59.6%, 43.2%, 32.1%, and 27.5%. A favorable pathological profile was associated with 5-year survival, albeit 25.7% of long-survivors received an R1 resection, and 28.8% had N2 disease. The median recurrence-free survival was 17.2 months. At landmark analyses, baseline prognostic lost strength over time, with no independent predictors of survival being identified in the sets of patients alive at 4 and 5 years. There was a significant amount of unobserved heterogeneity in the early postoperative period.

Conclusion: The 5-year post-pancreatectomy empirical survival was 27.5%. Dynamic analyses showed a time-varying structure of prognostic variables and a substantial impact of unobserved tumor characteristics that may drive the disease course under the selective pressure of surgical resection and adjuvant chemotherapy.