The spatial effect of industrial transfer on carbon emissions under firm location decision:A carbon neutrality perspective.

Climate change is a global concern. The goal of carbon neutrality and emission peak is a challenge for China and other developing countries. The carbon reduction policy for carbon neutrality and industrial transfer policy will be a research hotspot on carbon emissions. This study analyzed the spatial impact mechanism of industrial transfer on carbon emissions, especially the role of firm location decision and carbon reduction policy. Based on the dynamic deviation-share model, the industrial transfer products of 30 provinces in China during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" and "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" periods were measured. The spatially weighted interaction model based on improved parameters was then utilized to explore the spatial effect of industrial transfer and carbon reduction policy on regional carbon emissions. The results show that the restrictive carbon reduction policy through centrifugal effect lead to the location shift of manufacturing firms. Industrial transfer and carbon emissions are significantly related. The restrictive carbon reduction policy has significant spatial emission reduction effect. The carbon reduction policy and industrial transfer level of different region comprehensively were the key factors affecting China's carbon neutral goal. The findings have implications for optimizing the scheme of carbon emission reduction tasks allocation between regions.