Regional characteristics of influenza seasonality patterns in mainland China, 2005-2017: a statistical modeling study.

Int J Infect Dis

Department of Infectious Diseases, Huashan Hospital, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China; Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Fudan University, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China; National Medical Center for Infectious Diseases, Huashan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China. Electronic address:

Published: March 2023

Objectives: To quantify the seasonal and antigenic characteristics of influenza to help understand influenza activity and inform vaccine recommendations.

Methods: We employed a generalized linear model with harmonic terms to quantify the seasonal pattern of influenza in China from 2005-2017, including amplitude (circulatory intensity), semiannual periodicity (given two peaks a year), annual peak time, and epidemic duration. The antigenic differences were distinguished as antigenic similarity between 2009 and 2020. We categorized regions above 33° N, between 27° N and 33° N, and below 27° N as the north, central, and south regions, respectively.

Results: We estimated that the amplitude in the north region (median: 0.019, 95% CI: 0.018-0.021) was significantly higher than that in the central region (median: 0.011, 95% CI: 0.01-0.012, P <0.001) and south region (median: 0.008, 95% CI: 0.007-0.008, P <0.001) for influenza A virus subtype H3N2 (A/H3N2). The A/H3N2 in the central region had a semiannual periodicity (median: 0.548, 95% CI: 0.517-0.577), while no semiannual pattern was found in other regions or subtypes/lineages. The antigenic similarity was low (below 50% in the 2009-2010, 2014-2015, 2016-2018, and 2019-2020 seasons) for A/H3N2.

Conclusion: Our study depicted the seasonal pattern differences and antigenic differences of influenza in China, which provides information for vaccination strategies.

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Source
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2022.12.026DOI Listing

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