Analyzing eutrophication and harmful algal bloom dynamics in a deep Mediterranean hypereutrophic reservoir.

Excessive point and non-point nutrient loadings accompanied with elevated temperatures have increased the prevalence of harmful algal bloom (HAB). HABs pose significant environmental and public health concerns, particularly for inland freshwater systems. In this study, the eutrophication and HAB dynamics in the Qaraoun Reservoir, a hypereutrophic deep monomictic reservoir suffering from poor water quality, were assessed. The reservoir was mostly phosphorus limited, and large algal particulates dominated light attenuation in the water column. During bloom events, surface chlorophyll-a concentrations increased up to 961.3 µg/L, while surface concentrations of ammonia and ortho-phosphate were rapidly depleted; surface dissolved oxygen reached supersaturation levels and surface pH levels were up to 3 units higher than those measured in the hypolimnion. Meanwhile, measured Microcystin-LR toxin concentrations in the reservoir exceeded the World Health Organization 1 μg/L provisional guideline 45% of the times. Yet, the results showed that most of the toxins were intra-cellular, suggesting that they decayed rapidly when released into the reservoir. Results from a random forests ensemble model indicated that tracking the changes in surface dissolved oxygen levels, ammonium, ortho-phosphate, and pH can be an effective program towards predicting the reservoir's trophic state and algae blooms.