How Migration Status Shapes Susceptibility of Individuals' Loneliness to Social Isolation.

Our research provides competing hypotheses and empirical evidence how associations between objectively social isolation and subjective loneliness differ between host populations, migrants, and refugees. The analysis uses data of 25,171 participants from a random sample of the German population (SOEP v.35). We estimate regression models for the host population, migrants, and refugees and test five hypotheses on the association between social isolation and loneliness using a Bayesian approach in a multiverse framework. We find the strongest relative support for an increased need for social inclusion among refugees, indicated by a higher Bayes factor compared to the hosts and migrants. However, all theoretically developed hypotheses perform poorly in explaining the major pattern in our data: The association of social isolation and loneliness is persistently lower for migrants (0.15 SD-0.29 SD), with similar sizes of associations for refugees and the host population (0.38 SD-0.67 SD). The migration history must be actively considered in health service provision and support programs to better cater to the needs of the different groups.