Difference of Risk of Pancreatic Cancer in New-Onset Diabetes and Long-standing Diabetes: A Population-based Cohort Study.

Context: Considering the absence of methods to find pancreatic cancer early, surveillance of high-risk groups is needed for early diagnosis.

Objective: The study aimed to investigate the effect in the incidence of pancreatic cancer and the differences between new-onset diabetes mellitus (NODM) and long-standing DM (LSDM) since NODM group is a representative high-risk group.

Methods: The Korean National Health Insurance Service-National Sample Cohort between 2002 and 2013 data were used. Regarding 88 396 people with DM (case group), we conducted a 1:1 propensity score matching to select a matched non-DM population (control group). To investigate the interaction between DM and the time variable distinguishing NODM and LSDM, we performed a multivariate time-dependent Cox regression analysis.

Results: The incidence of pancreatic cancer was higher in the DM group compared to the non-DM group (0.52% vs 0.16%; P < .001). The DM group had shown different risk of pancreatic cancer development according to the duration since the DM diagnosis (NODM hazard ratio (HR): 3.81; 95% CI, 2.97-4.88; P < .001; LSDM HR: 1.53; 95% CI, 1.11-2.11; P < .001). When the NODM and the LSDM groups were compared, the risk of pancreatic cancer was higher in the NODM group than in the LSDM group (HR: 1.55; P = .020). In subgroup analysis, NODM group showed that men (HR = 4.42; 95% CI, 3.15-6.19; P < .001) and patients who were in their 50 seconds (HR = 7.54; 95% CI, 3.24-17.56; P < .001) were at a higher risk of developing pancreatic cancer than matched same sex or age control group (non-DM population), respectively.

Conclusion: The risk of pancreatic cancer was greater in people with DM than in a non-DM population. Among people with DM, NODM showed a higher risk of pancreatic cancer than LSDM.