A nomogram and risk classification system predicting esophageal stricture after endoscopic submucosal dissection of a large area for early esophageal cancer.

Background And Objectives: Esophageal stricture is a troublesome adverse effect of endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) for early esophageal cancer. However, risk factors of post-ESD esophageal stricture formation are incomprehensive. This study aimed to conduct a comprehensive analysis of independent risk factors and provide predictive tools.

Methods: Patients who underwent ESD for early esophageal cancer between 2014 and 2021 at the Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, were recruited. A nomogram and risk classification system was established based on Cox proportional hazards analyses and validated using the concordance index (C-index), calibration curves, decision curve analysis (DCA), and Kaplan-Meier (K-M) curves.

Results: Stricture formed in 36 patients, while stricture was not observed in the remaining 112 patients. Operative time (odds ratio [OR]: 1.01; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.00-1.01; p < 0.01); lesions >3/4 circumferential range of esophagus (OR: 3.82; 95% CI: 1.90-7.66; p < 0.01), and tumor infiltration to the mucosal lamina propria (m2) or deeper (OR: 2.40; 95% CI: 1.24-4.66; p = 0.01) were independent predictive factors for post-ESD esophageal stricture. The nomogram and risk classification system was developed and validated with 0.79 C-index, good calibration curves, good DCA results, and good K-M curves.

Conclusions: We developed a nomogram and risk stratification system to predict post-ESD esophageal stricture using three independent risk factors.