Development and Validation of a Comprehensive Model for Predicting Distant Metastasis of Solid Lung Adenocarcinoma: 3D Radiomics, 2D Radiomics and Clinical Features.

Objective: To develop and validate models for predicting distant metastases in patients with solid lung adenocarcinomas using 3D radiomic features, 2D radiomic features, clinical features, and their combinations.

Methods: This retrospective study included 253 eligible patients with solid adenocarcinoma of the lung diagnosed at our hospital between August 2018 and August 2021. 3D and 2D regions of interest were segmented from computed tomography-enhanced thin-slice images of the venous phase, and 851 radiomic features were extracted in each region. The Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) algorithm was used to select radiomic features and calculate radiomic scores, and logistic regression was used to develop the model. Development of a 3D radiomics model (model 1), a 2D radiomics model (model 2), a combined 3D radiomics and 2D radiomics model (model 3), a clinical model (model 4), and a comprehensive model (model 5) for the prediction of distant metastases in patients with solid lung adenocarcinomas. Nomograms were drawn to illustrate model 5, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used for model evaluation.

Results: The AUC (area under the curve) of model 1, model 2, model 3, model 4, and model 5 in the test set was 0.711, 0.769, 0.775, 0.829, and 0.892, respectively. The Delong test showed that AUC values were statistically different between model 5 and model 1 (p=0.001), and there was no statistical difference in AUC between the other models. Based on a comprehensive review of DCA, ROC curve, and Akaike information criterion (AIC), Model 5 is demonstrated to have better clinical utility, goodness of fit, and parsimony.

Conclusion: A comprehensive model based on 3D radiomic features, 2D radiomic features, and clinical features has the potential to predict distant metastasis in patients with solid lung adenocarcinomas.