Impact of COVID-19 on access to cancer care in Rwanda: a retrospective time-series study using electronic medical records data.

Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic has caused disruptions in access to routine healthcare services worldwide, with a particularly high impact on chronic care patients and low and middle-income countries. In this study, we used routinely collected electronic medical records data to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on access to cancer care at the Butaro Cancer Center of Excellence (BCCOE) in rural Rwanda.

Methods: We conducted a retrospective time-series study among all Rwandan patients who received cancer care at the BCCOE between 1 January 2016 and 31 July 2021. The primary outcomes of interest included a comparison of the number of patients who were predicted based on time-series models of pre-COVID-19 trends versus the actual number of patients who presented during the COVID-19 period (between March 2020 and July 2021) across four key indicators: the number of new patients, number of scheduled appointments, number of clinical visits attended and the proportion of scheduled appointments completed on time.

Results: In total, 8970 patients (7140 patients enrolled before COVID-19 and 1830 patients enrolled during COVID-19) were included in this study. During the COVID-19 period, enrolment of new patients dropped by 21.7% (95% prediction interval (PI): -31.3%, -11.7%) compared with the pre-COVID-19 period. Similarly, the number of clinical visits was 25.0% (95% PI: -31.1%, -19.1%) lower than expected and the proportion of scheduled visits completed on time was 27.9% (95% PI: -39.8%, -14.1%) lower than expected. However, the number of scheduled visits did not deviate significantly from expected.

Conclusion: Although scheduling procedures for visits continued as expected, our findings reveal that the COVID-19 pandemic interrupted patients' ability to access cancer care and attend scheduled appointments at the BCCOE. This interruption in care suggests delayed diagnosis and loss to follow-up, potentially resulting in a higher rate of negative health outcomes among cancer patients in Rwanda.