Estimates of major non-communicable disease risk factors for India, 2010 & 2015: A summary of evidence.

Background & Objectives: The National Monitoring Framework for the prevention and control of NCDs in India has set targets for reduction of risk factors relative to the measure recorded in 2010. Estimates for 2010 and 2015 were established using meta-analyses in the absence of a national risk factor survey till 2017.

Methods: We searched national survey reports and also articles published in English from India between 2008 and 2017 in PubMed, Google Scholar and Cochrane review databases for specific risk factors among 18-69 yr Indians. Quality of studies was evaluated using Joanna-Briggs tool, but all studies were included in analyses. Estimates for each of the eight strata by age, gender and place of residence, respectively, were generated. MetaXL was used to calculate the pooled estimate for 2010 and 2015 using a random effects model. Strata-specific estimates were combined to arrive at national estimate using population weight of each stratum. The credibility of the estimates was determined using four parameters - average Briggs score; representativeness of the contributing studies and precision and stability of the estimates.

Results: The estimates [95% confidence interval (CI)] for 2010 for different risk factors were as follows: current alcohol use, 15.7 per cent (13.2-18.2); current tobacco use, 27 per cent (21.4-32.6); household solid fuel use, 61.5 per cent (50.2-72.5); physical inactivity, 44.2 per cent (37.8-50.6); obesity, seven per cent (3.8-10.2) and raised blood pressure, 20.2 per cent (18.4-22.1). In 2015, compared to 2010, tobacco use showed a relative decline of 18 per cent, household solid fuel use of nine per cent and physical inactivity of 15 per cent. The estimates were stable for alcohol use, raised blood pressure and obesity between 2010 and 2015. All estimates varied between moderate and high degrees of credibility.

Interpretation & Conclusions: The estimates are consistent with other available estimates and with current national-level initiatives focused on tobacco control and improving access to clean fuel. These estimates can be used to monitor progress on non-communicable disease risk factor targets for India.