[Trends in the prevalence of schistosomiasis in Anhui Province from 2004 to 2020 based on Joinpoint regression analysis].

Objective: To investigate the changing trends in the prevalence of schistosomiasis in Anhui Province from 2004 to 2020, so as to provide the evidence for formulating the schistosomiasis elimination strategy in the province.

Methods: The epidemiological data of schistosomiasis in Anhui Province from 2004 to 2020 were collected, and the trends in the endemic status of schistosomiasis were analyzed using a Joinpoint regression model. The trends in the prevalence of infections in humans, bovines and were measured in Anhui Province from 2004 to 2020 using average annual percent change (AAPC), and the correlations among the changing trends in the prevalence of infections in humans, bovines and snail status were evaluated using Pearson correlation analysis.

Results: The prevalence of human infections continued to decline in Anhui Province from 2004 to 2020, with an annual mean decline of 14.8% [AAPC = -14.8%, 95% confidential interval (): (-18.9%, -10.5%), < 0.01]. The prevalence of infections continued to decline in bovines in Anhui Province from 2004 to 2015 [AAPC = -31.3%, 95%: (-35.1%, -27.2%), < 0.01], and was 0 for 5 successive years from 2016 to 2020. During the period from 2004 to 2020, there was an annual mean decline of 0.7% in areas of snail habitats [AAPC = -0.7%, 95%: (-1.2%, 0.3%), < 0.05] and an annual mean decline of 9.2% in the density of living snails [AAPC = -9.2%, 95%: (-18.3%, 1.0%), = 0.08] in Anhui Province from 2004 to 2020, and an annual mean decline of 35.6% was found in the density of -infected snails [AAPC = -35.6%, 95%: (-49.2%, -18.3%), < 0.01] from 2004 to 2012, with no infected snails detected in Anhui Province from 2013 to 2020. There were significant correlations in the prevalence of infections between humans and bovines ( = 0.959, < 0.01), between the prevalence of human infections and the density of -infected snails ( = 0.823, < 0.01) and between the prevalence of infections in bovines and the density of -infected snails ( = 0.902, < 0.01).

Conclusions: The prevalence of infections appeared a decline in humans, bovines and in Anhui Province from 2004 to 2020, and significant correlations were found among the changing trends in the prevalence of human infections, the prevalence of bovine infections and the density of -infected snails. Because of a minor decline in the area of snail habitats and widespread distribution of , however, there is still a risk of schistosomiasis transmission, and precision control for schistosomiasis remains to be reinforced in Anhui Province.