Reassessing the utility of access recirculation and Kt/V for the prediction of arteriovenous fistula failure using online clearance monitoring: the SHUNT STUDY.

Background: The arteriovenous fistula (AVF) is prone to thrombosis which can be avoided by use of monitoring and surveillance programmes. Although surveillance imaging techniques have been shown to be more sensitive and specific than clinical monitoring during dialysis, monitoring may have significant advantages in terms of cost and time saving. In this study we evaluate the yield of two monitoring techniques [blood temperature monitoring (BTM) access recirculation (AR) and Kt/V via online-clearance-monitoring (OCM)].

Methods: In this single-centre prospective observational study, 101 patients were followed-up for one year. The primary outcome measure was a composite of AVF failure. OCM-Kt/V and BTM-AR were recorded at every dialysis session.

Results: Of all baseline characteristics only a prior history of percutaneous transluminal angioplasty (PTA) to the AVF conferred a significant change in AVF survival (failure events/100 pt years with prior PTA vs. without = 64.0 vs. 17.3, log-rank p = 0.0014; unadjusted hazard ratio (HR) 3.74 (95% CI 1.56-8.94) p = 0.003). Participants with baseline AR < 10% vs. > 15% had poorer AVF survival (p = 0.0002) and HR for baseline AR 10-15% group vs. AR > 15% group = 4.5 (95% CI 1.55-13.05). There was no combination of change in (Δ) AR, ΔKt/V or its presence over any number of dialysis sessions that provided an acceptable combination of sensitivity and specificity or discrimination for AVF failure.

Conclusions: BTM-AR and OCM-Kt/V are specific but insufficiently sensitive tools for the prediction of AVF failure. BTM-AR and OCM-Kt/V use at every dialysis session appears to add little to the traditional, infrequent use of these evaluations.