Use of path analysis to predict changes to community pharmacy and GP emergency hormonal contraception (EHC) provision in England.

Objectives: In 2014/2015, 46% of community pharmacies were commissioned by local authorities to provide emergency hormonal contraception (EHC) free without prescription in England. Commissioning EHC services influences EHC prescribing from General Practice (GP)-greater community pharmacy provision reduces GP prescribing. This study aimed to examine predictors of GP and pharmacy EHC activity, describing them using path analysis. From this, commissioners and policy-makers may understand ways to influence this.

Study Design: Cross-sectional study of routinely recorded data, obtained through freedom of information requests to local authorities.

Setting: Community pharmacies and general practices in England, UK.

Participants: All local authorities in England were included in the study (147 areas). The study population were all girls, adolescents and women aged 12-55. Of the 147 areas, data from 80 local authorities were obtained covering an eligible female population of 9 380 153.

Primary And Secondary Outcome Measures: Correlation between community pharmacy and GP EHC activity.

Results: Data from 80 local authorities were analysed, representing 60% of the eligible female population in England. A significant negative correlation was found between rates of community pharmacy provision and GP prescribing (-0.458, p<0.000). Community pharmacy provision and the proportion of pharmacies commissioned were significantly correlated (0.461, p<0.000). A significant correlation was found between increased deprivation and community pharmacy provision (0.287, p=0.010). Standardised total effects on GP prescribing were determined from path analysis including community pharmacy provision (ß=-0.552) and proportion of pharmacies commissioned (ß=-0.299). If all community pharmacies were commissioned to provide EHC, GP EHC prescriptions could decrease by 15%.

Conclusion: Community pharmacy EHC provision has a significant influence on GP EHC prescribing. Increasing the proportion of commissioned community pharmacies should have a marked impact on GP workload. The methodology affords the possibility of examining relationships surrounding other commissioned service activity across different settings and their impact on linked care settings.