AI Article Synopsis
- In Hungary, when people were exposed to refugees during the 2015 crisis, they started to vote more against refugees in the 2016 national referendum.
- Places where refugees traveled saw a big increase in anti-refugee voting, and this effect was stronger the closer people were to the refugees.
- Voters in these areas preferred far-right parties that were against immigration, indicating that even the ruling party faced backlash from voters who didn't like immigration, regardless of what they said they believed.
Article Abstract
How does exposure to refugees influence political behavior? We present evidence from Hungary, a country with widespread anti-immigration attitudes, that short term exposure during the 2015 refugee crisis predicts anti-refugee voting and sentiment. We code exposure to refugees at the settlement level using reports from state media, an independent online news site, and an online social media aggregator. Settlements through which refugees traveled showed significantly higher anti-refugee voting in a national referendum in 2016. The effect decreases sharply with distance. Using a difference-in-differences model, we find that the far-right opposition gained, while the governing right-wing party lost votes in these settlements in subsequent parliamentary elections. This suggests incumbents are punished by voters skeptical of immigration regardless of their policy position. Survey data supports this finding of a competition among right-wing parties, as individuals in exposed settlements are more fearful of immigrants and support restrictive policies only if they identify as right-wing.
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| http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9674742 | PMC |
| http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11109-021-09682-1 | DOI Listing |
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