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Modelling the impact of school reopening and contact tracing strategies on Covid-19 dynamics in different epidemiologic settings in Brazil. | LitMetric

AI Article Synopsis

  • - The study simulates the effects of school reopening during the COVID-19 pandemic in three major Brazilian cities, using an extended SEIR model to analyze various transmission scenarios and assess the impact of contact tracing as a mitigation strategy.
  • - The findings indicate that reopening schools leads to a significant and non-linear rise in COVID-19 cases and deaths, heavily influenced by the infection rates at the time of reopening.
  • - It emphasizes that while contact tracing can help reduce infections within schools and homes, it is not enough to prevent broader community transmission; thus, policymakers must carefully evaluate the timing and context of school reopenings.

Article Abstract

We simulate the impact of school reopening during the COVID-19 pandemic in three major urban centers in Brazil to identify the epidemiological indicators and the best timing for the return of in-school activities and the effect of contact tracing as a mitigation measure. Our goal is to offer guidelines for evidence-based policymaking. We implement an extended SEIR model stratified by age and considering contact networks in different settings - school, home, work, and community, in which the infection transmission rate is affected by various intervention measures. After fitting epidemiological and demographic data, we simulate scenarios with increasing school transmission due to school reopening, and also estimate the number of hospitalization and deaths averted by the implementation of contact tracing. Reopening schools results in a non-linear increase in reported COVID-19 cases and deaths, which is highly dependent on infection and disease incidence at the time of reopening. When contact tracing and quarantining are restricted to school and home settings, a large number of daily tests is required to produce significant effects in reducing the total number of hospitalizations and deaths. Policymakers should carefully consider the epidemiological context and timing regarding the implementation of school closure and return of in-person school activities. While contact tracing strategies prevent new infections within school environments, they alone are not sufficient to avoid significant impacts on community transmission.

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Source
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9652103PMC
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloepi.2022.100094DOI Listing

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