Assessment of cumulative cancer risk attributable to diagnostic X-ray radiation: a large cohort study.

Objective: To assess the risk of cancer induced by diagnostic X-ray exposure in multiple radiological examinations and to explore the relevant influences to provide a reference for rational usage of X-ray examinations.

Methods: Data for all adult patients who underwent X-ray examinations from August 2004 to April 2020 in a general hospital was collected, including sex, age, primary diagnosis, and X-ray examination. Based on the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiations report, age and sex and effective dose for a single X-ray examination were used to calculate the lifetime attributable risk (LAR). Patients whose cancer LAR values were in the top 5% were considered to have a high cancer risk; the factors influencing this status were explored by using multivariate logistic regression analyses.

Results: In total, 1,143,413 patients with 3,301,286 X-ray examinations were included. LARs of cancer incidence and death were < 0.2% and < 0.13% among 95% of patients and they were > 1% among 0.21% and 0.07% of patients. High risks of incidence and death were significantly associated with corrected exposure frequency (odds ratio [OR], 1.080 and 1.080), sex (OR, male vs. female, 0.421 and 0.372), and year of birth (OR, 1.088 and 1.054), with all p values < 0.001. Among 20 disease categories, congenital disease (OR, 3.792 and 4.024), genitourinary disease (OR, 3.608 and 3.202), digestive disease (OR, 3.247 and 3.272), and tumor disease (OR, 2.706 and 2.767) had the strongest associations with high risks of incidence and death (all p values < 0.001).

Conclusions: Cancer risk induced by diagnostic X-ray examinations can be considered acceptable clinically. Patients having certain diseases are potentially at a relative higher risk due to recurrent examinations.

Key Points: • It was the first large-scale investigation of cumulative X-ray exposure in China, involving more than 3.3 million X-ray scans of all types of diagnostic X-ray examinations for about 1.1 million patients during the past 16 years. • The study revealed that the incidence risk of cancer induced by X-ray-related examinations was 0.01% on average, which was substantially lower than that of cancer induced by non-X-ray radiation. The risk could be considered acceptable clinically. • Patients having certain diseases were potentially at a relatively higher cancer risk due to recurrent X-ray examinations. The cumulative effect of X-ray exposure could not be ignored and was worthy of attention.