The pattern of failure after Stereotactic Radiation Therapy (SRT) for oligo-metastases: predictive factors for poly-progression.

Purpose: Patients with oligo-metastatic disease (OMD) can be safely treated with Stereotactic Radiation Therapy (SRT). Further disease progression is common in these patients. In most cases, patients relapse again with oligo-metastases, however some can experience a poly-progression after a local ablative treatment (LAT). The purpose of this study was to retrospectively identify factors associated with poly-progression in patients receiving SRT for OMD.

Methods: Data from a monocentric database were retrospectively analyzed. Patients treated with SRT for OMD and who developed progression after LAT were selected. Patients were categorized as oligo- or poly-progressive according to the number of new/progressing metastases (≤ or > 5). Herein, we analyzed data about patients' characteristics, oligo-metastatic presentation and radiation treatment characteristics to evaluate their relationship with progression type.

Results: From 2013 to 2021, data on 700 patients progressing after LAT were analyzed. Among them, 227 patients (32.4%) experienced a poly-progression; the median time to poly-progression was 7.72 months (range 1-79.6). Five variables associated with poly-progression were found to be statistically significant in the univariate analysis: performance status (p < 0.001), site of the primary tumor (p = 0.016), ablative dose (p = 0.002), treated site (p = 0.002), single or double organ (p = 0.03). Of those, all but the number of involved organs retained their significant predictive value on the multivariate analysis.

Conclusion: Our study identified four independent factors associated with poly-progression in patients with OMD receiving SRT. Our data may support comprehensive characterization of OMD, better understanding of factors associated with progression.