A dynamic nomogram combining tumor stage and magnetic resonance imaging features to predict the response to induction chemotherapy in locally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma.

Objectives: To establish an effective dynamic nomogram combining magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) findings of primary tumor and regional lymph nodes with tumor stage for the pretreatment prediction of induction chemotherapy (IC) response in locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma (LANPC).

Methods: A total of 498 LANPC patients (372 in the training and 126 in the validation cohort) with MRI information were enrolled. All patients were classified as "favorable responders" and "unfavorable responders" according to tumor response to IC. A nomogram for IC response was built based on the results of the logistic regression model. Also, the Cox regression analysis was used to identify the independent prognostic factors of disease-free survival (DFS).

Results: After two cycles of IC, 340 patients were classified as "favorable responders" and 158 patients as "unfavorable responders." Calibration curves revealed satisfactory agreement between the predicted and the observed probabilities. The nomogram achieved an AUC of 0.855 (95% CI, 0.781-0.930) for predicting IC response, which outperformed TNM staging (AUC, 0.661; 95% CI 0.565-0.758) and the MRI feature-based model alone (AUC, 0.744; 95% CI 0.650-0.839) in the validation cohort. The nomogram was used to categorize patients into high- and low-response groups. An online dynamic model was built ( https://nomogram-for-icresponse-prediction.shinyapps.io/DynNomapp/ ) to facilitate the application of the nomogram. In the Cox multivariate analysis, clinical stage, tumor necrosis, EBV DNA levels, and cervical lymph node numbers were independently associated with DFS.

Conclusions: The comprehensive nomogram incorporating MRI features and tumor stage could assist physicians in predicting IC response and formulating personalized treatment strategies for LANPC patients.

Key Points: • The nomogram can predict IC response in endemic LANPC. • The nomogram combining tumor stage with MRI-based tumor features showed very good predictive performance. • The nomogram was transformed into a web-based dynamic model to optimize clinical application.