Waist-to-hip circumference and waist-to-height ratio could strongly predict glycemic control than body mass index among adult patients with diabetes in Ethiopia: ROC analysis.

Background: Poorly controlled blood glucose is prevalent and contributes to the huge burden of diabetes related morbidity, and central obesity has a great role in the pathogenesis of diabetes and its adverse complications, which could predict such risks, yet evidence is lacking. Hence, this paper is to evaluate the predictive performance of central obesity indices for glycemic control among adult patients with diabetes in eastern Ethiopia.

Methods: A survey of 432 randomly chosen patients with diabetes was conducted using a pretested questionnaire supplemented by chart review, anthropometrics, and biomarkers by trained data collectors. The poor glycemic control was assessed using a fasting blood glucose (FBS) level of above 130 and/or an HgA1c level above 7%. Weight, height, waist circumference (WC), and hip circumference (HC) were measured under standard procedures and we calculated waist-to-hip circumference ratio (WHR) and waist-to-height ratio (WHtR). The receiver operating characteristics curve was used to assess the predictive performance of obesity indices for glycemic control using area under the curve (AUC) and corresponding validity measures.

Results: A total of 432 (92%) patients with diabetes were enrolled with a mean age of 49.6 (±12.4) years. The mean fasting blood glucose level was 189 (±72) mg dl-1 where 330 (76.4%) (95% CI: 74.4-78.4%) and 93.3% of them had poor glycemic control based on FBS and HgA1c, respectively. WC (AUC = 0.90; 95% CI: 0.85-0.95), WHR (AUC = 0.64; 95% CI: 0.43-0.84), and WHtR (AUC = 0.87; 95% CI: 0.83-0.94) have a higher predictive performance for poor glycemic control at cut-off points above 100 cm, 0.95, and 0.62, respectively. However, obesity indices showed a lower predictive performance for poor glycemic control based on FBS. Body mass index (BMI) had a poor predictive performance for poor glycemic control (AUC = 0.26; 95% CI: 0.13-0.40).

Conclusions: Poor glycemic control is a public health concern and obesity indicators, typically WC, WHR, and WHtR, have a better predictive performance for poor glycemic control than BMI.