Optimal Respiratory Syncytial Virus intervention programmes using Nirsevimab in England and Wales.

Vaccine

Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Centre for Global Health, Usher Institute, Edinburgh Medical School, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.

Published: November 2022

AI Article Synopsis

  • - Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) significantly impacts infants with acute lower respiratory tract infections, and while there’s currently only one monoclonal antibody available, a new one called Nirsevimab has shown promising results in trials.
  • - The study used a dynamic model to evaluate various Nirsevimab administration strategies, including seasonal and catch-up approaches, to determine their cost-effectiveness against the existing treatment, Palivizumab.
  • - Nirsevimab would need to be priced at £63 or less per dose to cost-effectively replace Palivizumab for seasonal administration, with an extended seasonal approach being optimal at £32/dose or less, indicating its potential value beyond just high-risk infants in

Article Abstract

Introduction: Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) is a major cause of acute lower respiratory tract infections (ALRI) in infants. There are no licensed vaccines and only one monoclonal antibody available to protect infants from disease. A new and potentially longer-lasting monoclonal antibody, Nirsevimab, showed promising results in phase IIb/III trials. We evaluate the cost-effectiveness of Nirsevimab intervention programmes in England and Wales.

Methods: We used a dynamic model for RSV transmission, calibrated to data from England and Wales. We considered a suite of potential Nirsevimab programmes, including administration to all neonates (year-round); only neonates born during the RSV season (seasonal); or neonates born during the RSV season plus infants less than six months old before the start of the RSV season (seasonal + catch-up).

Results: If administered seasonally to all infants at birth, we found that Nirsevimab would have to be priced at £63 or less per dose for at least 50% certainty that it could cost-effectively replace the current Palivizumab programme, using an ICER threshold of £20,000/QALY. An extended seasonal programme which includes a pre-season catch-up becomes the optimal strategy at a purchasing price of £32/dose or less for at least 50% certainty. At a purchasing price per dose of £5-32, the annual implementation costs of a seasonal programme could be as high as £2 million before a switch to a year-round strategy would be optimal.

Discussion: Nirsevimab has the potential to be cost-effective in England and Wales not only for use in high-risk infants.

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Source
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2022.10.041DOI Listing

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