Evaluation of the effect of pancreatic volume on mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis.

Background: Pancreatic volume is enlarged in acute pancreatitis.

Objective: This study aimed to evaluate whether there was a difference in pancreatic volume between survivors and non-survivors with acute pancreatitis using computer-generated 3D imaging.

Method: This single-center retrospective observational cohort study was conducted between January 2015 and December 2020. The hospital automation system was used to get the patients diagnosed with acute pancreatitis by using International Classification of Diseases (ICD) (ninth edition, code 577.0 or 10th version, code K 85.0) codes. The patients' pancreatic volumes, computed tomography severity index (CTSI), and modified computed tomography severity index (mCTSI) scores were calculated using the data obtained from the hospital automation system. The pancreatic volumes of the patients were measured using the computer-generated 3D imaging method. Pancreatic volume, CTSI, and mCTSI were then statistically compared in terms of mortality prediction by using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis.

Results: Of the 143 patients, 57.34% were female and 42.66% were male. The cut-off value of pancreatic volume in determining mortality was>81.5 cm OR:17.43 (%95 CI: 2.2-138.1) Cohen's d:1.126, at which it had 92.3% sensitivity, 60.0% specificity, 18.8% positive predictive value, and 98.7% negative predictive value. As a result of the ROC analysis of pancreatic volume in mortality prediction, the area under curve (AUC) value was determined as 0.787 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.711-0.851]. The ROC analysis of the CTSI and mCTSI scores in mortality prediction revealed AUC values of 0.822 (95%CI: 0.750-0.881) and 0.955 (95%CI: 0.907-0.983) respectively.

Conclusion: Although CTSI scores pancreatic enlargement and mCTSI scores pancreatic necrosis and inflammation, the pancreatic volume value is not clearly scored in both. In this study population, pancreatic volume above 81.5 cm was associated with increased mortality. Both CTSI and mCTSI scores outperformed pancreatic volume in predicting mortality.