Seasonal and inter-annual variation in exposure to peregrines (Falco peregrinus) for southbound western sandpipers (Calidris mauri).

Background: The western sandpiper (Calidris mauri) is an early southbound migrant species in North America. The 'peregrine avoidance' hypothesis proposes that this timing evolved to reduce exposure to their main predator, the peregrine (Falco peregrinus), along the Pacific flyway.

Methods: I evaluate this hypothesis based on 16 years of near-daily (June - October) measures of peregrine presence made on the Fraser River estuary, a major stopover in the Pacific northwest.

Results: Exposure to peregrines is lowest for the earliest southbound western sandpipers, and rises steeply as peregrines en route from northern breeding areas begin to arrive in late July or August. Peregrine arrival timing varies greatly between years, shifting in step with the onset of spring along coastal Alaska. Peregrine presence on the Fraser estuary on any date is higher in years with earlier spring onset. On the median adult sandpiper passage date (day-of-year 198) this increases 17-fold over the inter-annual range between the earliest and latest peregrine arrival dates.

Conclusion: The pattern of strong and predictable changes in the seasonal pattern of danger quantified here provides a further test of the hypothesis that danger affects migratory timing. Western sandpipers appear to anticipate the exposure level of southward migration, perhaps because they are able to observe spring onset on their Alaskan breeding grounds. They adjust the duration of parental care and length of the breeding season to keep the date of migratory departure from the Arctic relatively invariant in spite of large interannual variation in spring onset. While underway they also adjust aspects of migratory behavior. These observations support the 'peregrine avoidance' hypothesis, and suggest that western sandpipers are able to counter, at least partially, the higher migratory danger of early spring years.