Which Body Composition Parameters on Computed Tomography Are More Successful in Predicting the Prognosis of COVID-19 Patients?

Objectives: The aims of the study are to compare the body composition parameters (BCPs), which have been reported to have a prognostic impact, in COVID-19 patients, and to determine the most influential BCP(s) on the prognosis.

Methods: Unenhanced chest computed tomography examinations of COVID-19 cases were assessed regarding the severity of pneumonia, pectoralis muscle area and density (PMA, PMD), visceral adipose tissue area (VAA), waist circumference, waist to paravertebral muscle circumference ratio, coronary artery calcification severity, and paravertebral muscle area at the T5 vertebral level. A second observer repeated measurements and an intraclass correlation coefficient score were used for interobserver agreement. The relationship between data and patient outcomes (intubation, death) was investigated using multivariable logistic regression analysis. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to evaluate the performance of BCPs in predicting outcomes.

Results: A total of 238 (121 males, median age, 48 years [interquartile range, 36-63 years]) consecutive COVID-19 patients with chest computed tomography were investigated. Twenty-four patients (10.08%) were intubated, and 15 patients (6.3%) died during at least 1 month of follow-up. Waist to paravertebral muscle circumference ratio, PMA, PMD, and T5 vertebral level were significantly associated with intubation in the multivariable analysis. Pectoralis muscle density and PMA were significantly associated with death. Pectoralis muscle density showed the highest AUC for the prediction of intubation and death (AUC of 0.814 and 0.871, respectively). There was a good to excellent agreement between observers (intraclass correlation coefficient range, 0.899-0.998).

Conclusions: Pectoralis muscle density is the most influential BCP in predicting intubation and death in COVID-19 patients.