A suite of agronomic factors can offset the effects of climate variability on rainfed maize production in Kenya.

Achieving food security in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is a multidimensional challenge. SSA reliance on food imports is expected to grow in the coming decades to meet the population's demand, projected to double to over 2 billion people by 2050. In addition, climate change is already affecting food production and supply chains across the region. Addressing these multiple food security challenges will necessitate rapid enhancements in agricultural productivity, which is influenced by a host of demographic, agronomic, and climatic factors. We use statistical approaches to examine rainfed maize in Kenya, where maize cultivation and consumption are widespread and central to livelihoods and national food security. We find that improving a suite of agronomic factors, such as applying fertilizer, planting certified seeds, and extension services, will have a greater effect on rainfed maize productivity than demographics and can offset the effects of climate change. These findings could also offer insights into similar challenges for other crops in Kenya and other SSA countries.