Modified preoperative score to predict disease-free survival for hepatocellular carcinoma patients with surgical resections.

Background: No prognostic models specific to hepatocellular carcinoma patients receiving surgical resection have been considered strong and convincing enough for survival prediction thus far, and there are no models including only preoperative predictors. We derived a nomogram to predict disease-free survival in a previous study.

Aim: To simplify our score and compare research outcomes among other scoring systems.

Methods: We retrospectively reviewed data from 1106 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma who underwent liver resection at the Linkou Chang Gung Memorial Hospital between April 2003 and December 2012. Multivariate analyses were conducted to identify the significant survival predictors. Homogeneity, Harrell's C-index, and Akaike information criterion were compared between our score, AJCC 8 edition, Tokyo score, and Taipei Integrated Scoring System (TTV-CTP-AFP model).

Results: Among the 1106 patients, 731 (66.1%) had tumor recurrence at a median follow-up of 83.9 mo. Five risk factors were identified: platelet count, albumin level, indocyanine green retention rate, multiplicity, and radiologic total tumor volume. Patients were divided into three risk groups, and the 5-year survival rates were 61.7%, 39%, and 25.7%, respectively. The C-index was 0.617, which was higher than the Tokyo score (0.613) and the Taipei Integrated Scoring System (0.562) and equal to the value of the AJCC 8 edition (0.617).

Conclusion: The modified score provides an easier method to predict survival. Appropriate treatment can be planned preoperatively by dividing patients into risk groups.