Predicting Performance at Graduation From Early ACGME Milestone Ratings: Longitudinal Learning Analytics in Professionalism and Communication in Vascular Surgery.

Objective: Program directors in surgical disciplines need more tools from the ACGME to help them use Milestone ratings to improve trainees' performance. This is especially true in competencies that are notoriously difficult to measure, such as professionalism (PROF) and interpersonal and communication skills (ICS). It is now widely understood that skills in these two areas have direct impact on patient care outcomes. This study investigated the potential for generating early predictors of final Milestone ratings within the PROF and ICS competency categories.

Design: This retrospective cohort study utilized Milestone ratings from all ACGME-accredited vascular surgery training programs, covering residents and fellows who completed training in June 2019. The outcome measure studied was the rate of achieving the recommended graduation target of Milestone Level 4 (possible range: 1-5), while the predictors were the Milestone ratings attained at earlier stages of training. Predictive probability values (PPVs) were calculated for each of the 3 PROF and two ICS sub-competencies to estimate the probability of trainees not reaching the recommended graduation target based on their previous Milestone ratings.

Setting: All ACGME-accredited vascular surgery training programs within the United States.

Participants: All trainees completing a 2 year vascular surgery fellowship (VSF) in June 2019 (n = 119) or a 5 year integrated vascular surgery residency (IVSR) in June 2019 (n = 52) were included in the analyses.

Results: The overall rate of failing to achieve the recommended graduation target across all PROF and ICS sub-competencies ranged from 7.7% to 21.8% of all trainees. For trainees with a Milestone rating at ≤ 2.5 with 1 year remaining in their training program, the predictive probability of not achieving the recommended graduation target ranged from 37.0% to 71.5% across sub-competencies, with the highest risks observed under PROF for "Administrative Tasks" (71.5%) and under ICS for "Communication with the Healthcare Team" (56.7%).

Conclusions: As many as 1 in 4 vascular surgery trainees did not achieve the ACGME vascular surgery Milestones targets for graduation in at least one of the PROF and ICS sub-competencies. Biannual ACGME Milestone assessment ratings of PROF and ICS during early training can be used to predict achievement of competency targets at time of graduation. Early clues to problems in PROF and ICS enable programs to address potential deficits early in training to ensure competency in these essential non-technical skills prior to entering unsupervised practice.