Simplicial epidemic model with birth and death.

Chaos

School of Science, Harbin Institute of Technology (Shenzhen), Shenzhen 518055, China.

Published: September 2022

AI Article Synopsis

  • The paper presents a new epidemic model that incorporates birth and death rates to study disease spread through group interactions.
  • The model uses quenched mean-field probability equations to analyze site-based evolutions and simplifies the dynamics through a mean-field approach, revealing how system parameters impact stability and the existence of different states.
  • Extensive simulations show that varying birth and death rates can lead to bistable states, affecting the density of infected individuals and the threshold for outbreaks.

Article Abstract

In this paper, we propose a simplicial susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic model with birth and death to describe epidemic spreading based on group interactions, accompanying with birth and death. The site-based evolutions are formulated by the quenched mean-field probability equations for each site, which is a high-dimensional differential system. To facilitate a theoretical analysis of the influence of system parameters on dynamics, we adopt the mean-field method for our model to reduce the dimension. As a consequence, it suggests that birth and death rates influence the existence and stability of equilibria, as well as the appearance of a bistable state (the coexistence of the stable disease-free and endemic states), which is then confirmed by extensive simulations on empirical and synthetic networks. Furthermore, we find that another type of the bistable state in which a stable periodic outbreak state coexists with a steady disease-free state also emerges when birth and death rates and other parameters satisfy the certain conditions. Finally, we illustrate how the birth and death rates shift the density of infected nodes in the stationary state and the outbreak threshold, which is also verified by sensitivity analysis for the proposed model.

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Source
http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/5.0092489DOI Listing

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