Predictors of survival outcomes among patients with gastric cancer in a leading tertiary, teaching and referral hospital in Kenya.

Introduction: The incidence of gastrointestinal malignancies in Kenya is increasing, although there is a paucity of data on survival outcomes among gastric cancer patients. Hence, this study aimed to assess survival outcomes among adult gastric cancer patients at Kenyatta National Hospital.

Methods: A retrospective cohort study design was used to assess the survival outcomes among 247 gastric cancer patients. All medical records of adult (≥18 years) gastric cancer patients with complete medical records of diagnosis, stage of cancer, and treatment regimen in the study setting in the last 5 years (2016-2020) were included. A simple random sampling technique was employed to select the study participants. Data were collected using a data abstraction tool composed of socio-demographic and clinical characteristics. Survival outcomes were reported as the percentage of mortality, mean survival estimate, and mean cancer-specific survival. The data were entered and analyzed using version 20.0 SPSS statistical software. The mean survival estimates and predictors of mortality were computed using the Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analysis.

Results: The study showed that 33.3% (64) had new distant metastasis, and 42.1% (104) had disease progression. Besides, the mortality rate was high (33.6%), and 14.6% and 7.7% of patients had complete and partial responses, respectively. The five-year survival was 32.7% among gastric cancer patients. Comorbidity (p = 0.014), advanced-stage diseases (p = 0.03), chemotherapy (p = 0.008), and gastrectomy (p = 0.016) were significant determinants of mortality.

Conclusions: A significant proportion of patients had distant metastasis, disease progression, and a low five-year survival rate. Hence, early cancer-screening programs are indispensable to circumvent disease progression and improve survival outcomes.