Contrasting Case-Control and Normative Reference Approaches to Capture Clinically Relevant Structural Brain Abnormalities in Patients With First-Episode Psychosis Who Are Antipsychotic Naive.

Importance: To make progress toward precision psychiatry, it is crucial to move beyond case-control studies and instead capture individual variations and interpret them in the context of a normal range of biological systems.

Objective: To evaluate whether baseline deviations from a normative reference range in subcortical volumes are better predictors of antipsychotic treatment response than raw volumes in patients with first-episode psychosis (FEP) who were naive to antipsychotic medication.

Design, Setting, And Participants: In this prospective longitudinal study, patients with first-episode psychosis who were referred from different clinical settings (emergency department, inpatient units, and outpatient clinics) at the University of Alabama at Birmingham were included. A total of 286 patients were screened, 114 consented, 104 enrolled in the treatment trial, and 85 completed the trial. Patients were observed for 16 weeks. Controls were matched by age and sex. Data were collected between June 2016 and July 2021, and data were analyzed from August 2021 to June 2022.

Interventions: Risperidone on a flexible dosing scheme for 16 weeks. There was an option to switch to aripiprazole for excessive adverse effects.

Main Outcomes And Measures: The main outcome of this study was to evaluate, in patients with FEP who were naive to antipsychotic medication, the association of baseline raw volumes and volume deviations in subcortical brain regions with response to antipsychotic medication. Raw brain volumes or volume deviation changes after treatment were not examined.

Results: Of 190 included participants, 111 (58.4%) were male, and the mean (SD) age was 23.7 (5.5) years. Volumes and deviations were quantified in 98 patients with FEP, and data from 92 controls were used as comparison for case-control contrasts and reference curve calibration. In case-control contrasts, patients with FEP had lower raw thalamus (P = .002; F = 9.63; df = 1), hippocampus (P = .009; F = 17.23; df = 1), amygdala (P = .01; F = 6.55; df = 1), ventral diencephalon (P = .03; F = 4.84; df = 1), and brainstem volumes (P = .004; F = 8.39; df = 1). Of 98 patients, 36 patients with FEP (36%) displayed extreme deviations. Associations with treatment response significantly differed between raw volume and deviation measures in the caudate (z = -2.17; P = .03) and putamen (z = -2.15; P = .03).

Conclusions And Relevance: These data suggest that normative modeling allows capture of interindividual heterogeneity of regional brain volumes in patients with FEP and characterize structural pathology in a clinically relevant fashion. This holds promise for progress in precision medicine in psychiatry, where group-level studies have failed to derive reliable maps of structural pathology.