Chromosomal Instability in Cell-free DNA as a Prognostic Biomarker of Metastatic Hormone-sensitive Prostate Cancer Treated with Androgen Deprivation Therapy.

Background: Although patients with metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer (mHSPC) undergo androgen deprivation therapy (ADT), the disease can progress to metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC). There are no reliable biomarkers for predicting this progression. Chromosomal instability resulting in copy number alterations (CNAs) is characteristically observed in patients with various cancers.

Objective: To investigate the role of chromosomal instability in patients with mHSPC.

Design, Setting, And Participants: This prospective study analyzed cell-free DNA (cfDNA) in pretreatment plasma samples from 75 patients with elevated prostate-specific antigen. Low-depth whole-genome sequencing of cfDNA was performed to identify CNAs.

Outcome Measurements And Statistical Analysis: The I score (sum of the product of the absolute Z score and the corresponding chromosome length) was used as a measure of chromosomal instability. Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional-hazard regression analyses were performed to evaluate the association between the I score and time to progression (TTP) and the prognostic value of chromosomal instability in predicting castration resistance, respectively.

Results And Limitations: Of 22 patients with a positive I score, 86.4% (19/22) had metastatic prostate cancer. Of these 19 cases, 94.7% (18/19) were mHSPC, which was high-volume mHSPC in 83.3% (15/18). None of the patients with localized prostate cancer had a positive I score. TTP in patients with mHSPC was significantly shorter in the positive than in the negative I-score group (16.4 vs 36.9 mo; p = 0.001). Only the I score could independently predict mCRPC development (hazard ratio 10.315, 95% confidence interval 1.141-93.208; p = 0.038).

Conclusions: The I score could be a biomarker for ADT response and progression to mCRPC in patients with mHSPC.

Patient Summary: We investigated whether genetic changes in cell-free DNA can predict outcomes for patients with metastatic prostate cancer that still responds to hormone therapy. We found that chromosomal instability could be a potential predictor of the development of metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer.