Risk factors for pre-heart failure or symptomatic heart failure based on NT-proBNP.

Aims: Evidence on the risk factors for incident heart failure in Asia has been limited. We sought to identify the risk factors for pre-heart failure or symptomatic heart failure, based on N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), in the Japanese general population.

Methods: We performed a retrospective cohort study based on the Circulatory Risk in Communities Study involving 5335 Japanese individuals whose NT-proBNP levels were measured between 2010 and 2015. Of these, 2768 people aged between 30 and 69 years who undertook annual cardiovascular risk surveys at least once between 1990 and 2000 were retrospectively eligible to be participants in this study. We performed multivariable logistic regression analyses to calculate the odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of pre-heart failure or symptomatic heart failure defined as NT-proBNP >400 pg/mL or as having a diagnosis of heart failure and taking medication for heart failure for several cardiovascular risk factors (body mass index, blood pressure, diabetes mellitus, total cholesterol, triglyceride, smoking status, drinking status).

Results: We identified 85 cases of heart failure. The multivariable ORs (95% CIs) were 5.70 (2.70-12.0) for body mass index of 27-29.9 kg/m and 5.91 (2.19-16.0) for ≥30 kg/m compared with 21-22.9 kg/m ; 2.49(1.01-6.13) for systolic blood pressure of ≥160 mmHg vs. <130 mmHg; 2.87(1.23-6.68) for diastolic blood pressure of ≥100 mmHg vs. <80 mmHg; 5.16(2.14-12.4) for diabetes vs. non-diabetes; and 2.24 (0.92-5.49) for current smokers of ≥20 cigarettes/day vs. never smokers. The multivariable ORs (95% CIs) of the number of risk factors, defined as the sum of four risk factors (obesity, hypertension, diabetes, and current smoker) was 6.80 (3.69-12.5) for ≥2 risk factors vs. no risk factors.

Conclusions: The accumulation of these risk factors was associated with a graded higher risk of pre-heart failure or symptomatic heart failure.